October 3rd, 2023 - This Week in Real Estate
The U.S. housing market is now worth a record $52 trillion
Freddie Mac 30 Year Fixed
(Weekly - 9/28)
7.31% (+.12 since last week)
Dow Jones Real Estate Index
(Daily - 10/3)
291.41 (-10.50 since last week)
S&P U.S. REIT
(Daily - 10/3)
284.20 (-10.09 since last week)
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index
(Monthly - July ‘23)
310.16 (+1.91 from June)
What’s new in the world of Real Estate
The residential real estate market is worth a record $52 trillion. This represents a 49% gain over pre-pandemic levels.
Rochester, NY, had the “hottest” housing market in August. The top five markets were all in the Northeast as affordability reigned supreme.
Price drops on current listings are becoming more common. However, the median home sale price is still up 3% year over year.
The Senate is concerned about foreign ownership of farmland. Foreign investors own approximately 3% of U.S. agricultural land.
Listing of the week: A billionaire’s $85 million Beverly Hills estate.
Research and Insights from the Vincent team
The total value of the U.S. housing market has risen by 49% since the pandemic. Zillow reports that the total value of residential real estate in the country has hit a record $52 trillion, a rise of $2.6 trillion in the past year. This is due both to rising prices and the rising pace of new home construction. Florida has now surpassed New York as the 2nd most valuable state, and Miami cracked the top five markets, behind New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Boston.
For the second time this year, Rochester, NY has had the hottest housing market in the country. This according to Realtor.com, which had Portland, ME, Manchester, NH, Springfield, MA and Worcester MA rounding out the top five. These are the markets where homes are selling the fastest and listings are receiving the most attention. While affordability was a key factor at the top of the list, there were promising signs for the higher-priced California market, with San Jose (+93 spots), San Diego (+78), Los Angeles (+65), and San Francisco/Oakland (+63) seeing the greatest improvement in the past month.
Around 6.5% of all current listings have cut their price in the past month. Redfin’s latest monthly report shows that potential buyers are starting to gain a little leverage, despite the lack of supply - total inventory is down 15% year-over-year. The “demand index” for buyers has also dropped in the past year, but by 7%, meaning that demand is still outpacing supply. This has led to median price growth of 3% despite price cuts becoming more common.
There is bipartisan support to regulate foreign ownership of U.S. farmland. Only around 3% of U.S. farmland is owned by foreign investors, and there is no evidence that this has been a significant driver in recent price appreciation. However, foreign ownership has grown by 66% since 2010, leading to national security concerns. While 24 states do restrict foreign ownership, any sort of federal regulation is probably a long way off - but any restrictions on ownership would reduce the overall pool of potential buyers.
Listing of the Week
A property that caught our eye
Australian billionaire James Packer has listed his Beverly Hills estate that comes complete with twelve bedrooms, eighteen bathrooms, a theater, bar, wine cellar, cigar room, pool, gym, sauna and an eight car garage. Previously occupied by Ben Affleck and Jennifer Lopez, the asking price is a cool $85 million.